WMD Threats - Agents, Effects and Defensive Measures

Bio Defence - Waking up to the New Threats

"War is a matter of vital importance to the state" Sun Tzu

Despite the centuries of civilisation, human race is not able to avoid conflicts. Wars will remain till human beings exist. Therefore, to study ways of avoiding, prosecuting if imposed, sustaining and supporting wars is an essential activity of a modern nation. The present day knowledge-based world will influence the way the wars will be carried out in future. These wars will be greatly affected by the fundamental changes taking place in the global geo-strategic environment and the increasing role of political, cultural and socio-economic factors in the overall security equations. However, technology will have sweeping influence on future wars. Therefore, to understand future warfare, it is not only necessary to understand the unpredictable, uncertain and unknown domains in which our world is rapidly moving, but also to assess the revolutionary ways in which the technological developments will influence future warfare at different levels of conflict intensity.

Levels of Conflicts

A war, statistically speaking, is a rare event. It is also an exceedingly costly and disruptive form of interaction between people and states. A war indicates that level of bilateral relationship between two states, which exists from the time first mobilisation of troops is called for against the other side till peace is reached. This view of war implying only active armed conflict however is a restrictive definition. Here it is assumed that war/conflict is in operation, from the moment a state decides upon a policy of armed resistance or inclination to counter an external/ internal threat with military ramifications, to the time the solution of the active threat is achieved or it is made dormant. Modern day wars have been defined at three levels of increasing intensity though not necessarily increasing complexity and duration (See Figure below). At the first level is the most prevalent form of warfare, i.e., Low Intensity Conflict (LIC). The LIC is defined as a conflict between irregular forces, mercenaries, revolutionaries, terrorists, etc and the regular, conventional armed forces of a nation. The biggest challenge facing the conventionally armed forces of a nation, which are trained and equipped for fighting against the conventionally armed forces of the enemy, is to deal with LIC. The Mid Intensity Conflict (MIC) is the conventional warfare that is indoctrinated in the regular armed forces of the world. With the advent of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), the chances of High Intensity Conflict (HIC), which is defined as a conflict involving WMDs, are increasing.

As is evident from Figure above., the probability of occurrence of a LIC is high and also the duration of such conflicts is more. This is due to the fact that LIC is a continuous process, which the armed forces all over the world have found hard to contain. The probability of WMD based HIC is low compared to LIC/MIC. However, a threat which this spectrum misses out is the possibility that, WMDs may fall in the hands of irregulars engaged in an LIC. This will bring the conflict to HIC levels, where the nation fighting the insurgents or irregulars will suffer. Therefore, the armed forces of a modern nation need equipment, force structure and doctrines to deal with threats at all three levels of intensity. These armed forces should strive to achieve a balanced force structure to deal with hi-tech conventional threats from other forces and to deal with low to medium technology LICs on the other hand.

WMDs- Transforming Low Intensity Conflicts to High Intensity Conflicts

The two trends of increasing LICs and proliferation of WMDs are shaping the nature of current wars. These wars are living in an imitable world characterised by demise of bi-polarity, increasing reluctance on the part of political leadership to resort to wars due to more awareness of individuals, almost revolutionary impact of Technology the society in uncountable ways through multiple dimensions and increasing intellectual contributions in evolving the new way of warfare.

The gravest threat the world is facing today is the probability of low intensity conflicts being suddenly transformed into a high intensity conflict through possession, threat of usage and actual use of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) by actors (state and non-state actors) that are resorting to low intensity conflicts against nation states.

Till some years back, WMDs meant more or less the nuclear/atomic weapons, although Chemical and Biological weapons were always part of the WMD definition. The increasing clarity is emerging that most dangerous and most likely way an covert actor will resort of an act of war or terrorism is by possesing, threatening to use and actual usage of Biological weapons - although chemical and nuclear weapons can not be ignored.

Bio-Weapons - The WMD of a Covert Actor

A covert actor will use biological agents to create mass casualties and thereby reducing the ability of the population to function freely. Against a nation state this will have a dramatic impact. The nations that are progressing rapidly in the new globalizing world and that are already facing decades of conflicts - are prime targets for such attacks in the near and mid future. India, for example, is key example of nation state that qualifies as a very high potential target for a bio-attack.

Covert actors decisions to use biological weapons has sound logic as it is relatively easy for remain covert with bio weapons, one needs small quantities as the living organisms used as bio weapons for example, multiple themselves, are relatively cheap and easy to produce, very difficult to detect and potentially available. Further, biological agents do not have to be pure to create casualties - the very fact of usage has a massive psychological impact.

Designing a Holistic Response against the Bio-war threats

Due to the unique positioning of this high intensity weapon in the hands of low intensity conflict actors, bio-war is relatively more probable than say a nuclear war. The consequences of a bio-attack are massive in terms of potential destruction (not only physical but the moral well being of the population at large).

We need to think and act for integrated, comprehensive, calculated response to the threat of bio-attacks. This blog is a forum to discuss and develop a framework together to meet the threat head-on.

We need to craft the response before the attack - the challenges are enormous and it definitely cant be left as the responsibility of the government alone. We will make the world bio-attack free zone - by creating a holistic framework to create responses against potential bio-attacks.

We look forward to making this happen through this vehicle, as a start.